Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Spring Training Hitters Power Poll: Week 2


So as I said last week, the reason I was starting these polls was so that I could tweak the formula if I needed to before the regular season began, and that's exactly what has happened this week. The more data I accumulated, the more obvious it started to become that I was weighting at bats a bit too much.

As a result, guys having springs like Dayan Viciedo were ranked a lot higher than a lot others who were performing much better. So I made an adjustment and I think the new formula does a better job of representing the actual performance we've seen.

Of course, because I changed the formula, I won't include the difference in points this week, but I will show where each player was ranked last week.

RANKPLAYER POINTS LW+/-
1Adam Dunn 35 2 NA
2Brent Lillibridge 26 10 NA
2Eduardo Escobar 26 10 NA
4Dan Johnson 23 9 NA
5Gordon Beckham 20 3 NA
5Tyler Flowers 20 12 NA
7Kosuke Fukudome 19 6 NA
8Brent Morel 18 1 NA
9Paul Konerko 15 18 NA
9Jordan Danks 15 21 NA
11Alex Rios 13 8 NA
11A.J. Pierzynski 13 15 NA
13Jared Mitchell 12 6 NA
14Alejandro De Aza 9 4 NA
14Ray Olmedo 9 15 NA
14Jim Gallagher 9 14 NA
17Trayce Thompson 8 17 NA
18Alexei Ramirez 7 4 NA
18Andy Wilkins 7 18 NA
20Dallas McPherson 6 26 NA
20Ken Williams Jr 6 22 NA
22Hector Gimenez 5 22 NA
23Tyler Kuhn 4 22 NA
23Delwyn Young 4 18 NA
25Dayan Viciedo 2 13 NA
25Josh Phegley 2 28 NA
27Damaso Espino 0 29 NA
27Andrew Garcia 0 30 NA
27Christian Marrero 0 30 NA
30Tyler Saladino -1 26 NA
30Brandon Short -1 30 NA
30Justin Greene -1 34 NA
33Ozzie Martinez -2 25 NA
33Michael Blanke -2 30 NA

So, as you can see, the new formula was good for Brent Lillibridge, Eduardo Escobar and Tyler Flowers -- their performances last week didn't hurt either -- and not as kind to Alejandro De Aza and Alexei Ramirez. Still, I think this is more accurate than the last formula, and the shifts in position this week won't mean as much as the ones we see next week.

Well, unless I change the formula again.

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