So I introduced this idea months ago when South Side Asylum first went live, but since then I've been doing some tweaks to the formulas I wanted to use for these Power Polls. I just felt like the last formulas I used didn't do enough to counter the amount of time actually spent on the field by any individual player.
Whether you're playing well or terribly, you're always contributing more to the outcome of a game than the guy sitting on the bench. And with the new formulas I've created for both hitters and pitchers, I think I've done that.
Still, I don't know that either of them are right just yet.
Which is why I'm busting them out now, in spring training. Spring training data should be taken with a grain of salt, but my thinking is that by running these weekly before the regular season starts, I'll be able to notice any alterations I need to make in the formulas before the season starts.
So these Power Polls, much like the spring training production they document, shouldn't be taken as gospel just yet. That being said, comparing the data to what I've seen with my own eyes, I don't think the formula is far off.
As for what the formula is, it's not too advanced, but I don't want to go all that in depth with it either. In a way I approached it somewhat like a fantasy league would, applying points to players for certain stats they've accrued during the season.
Some stats are more important than others, and I've weighted them to reflect that. So without boring you to death with this, let's just get to the first set of rankings based on the numbers White Sox hitters have produced in the first week plus of spring training.
| RANK | PLAYER | POINTS | LW | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent Morel | 39 | NA | NA |
| 2 | Adam Dunn | 31 | NA | NA |
| 3 | Gordon Beckham | 28 | NA | NA |
| 4 | Alexei Ramirez | 27 | NA | NA |
| 4 | Alejandro De Aza | 27 | NA | NA |
| 6 | Kosuke Fukudome | 26 | NA | NA |
| 6 | Jared Mitchell | 26 | NA | NA |
| 8 | Alex Rios | 23 | NA | NA |
| 9 | Dan Johnson | 22 | NA | NA |
| 10 | Brent Lillibridge | 20 | NA | NA |
| 10 | Eduardo Escobar | 20 | NA | NA |
| 12 | Tyler Flowers | 19 | NA | NA |
| 13 | Dayan Viciedo | 18 | NA | NA |
| 14 | Jim Gallagher | 17 | NA | NA |
| 15 | Ray Olmedo | 15 | NA | NA |
| 15 | A.J. Pierzynski | 15 | NA | NA |
| 17 | Trayce Thompson | 13 | NA | NA |
| 18 | Andy Wilkins | 12 | NA | NA |
| 18 | Delwyn Young | 12 | NA | NA |
| 18 | Paul Konerko | 12 | NA | NA |
| 21 | Jordan Danks | 11 | NA | NA |
| 22 | Ken Williams Jr | 8 | NA | NA |
| 22 | Hector Gimenez | 8 | NA | NA |
| 22 | Tyler Kuhn | 8 | NA | NA |
| 25 | Ozzie Martinez | 7 | NA | NA |
| 26 | Tyler Saladino | 6 | NA | NA |
| 26 | Dallas McPherson | 6 | NA | NA |
| 28 | Josh Phegley | 4 | NA | NA |
| 29 | Damaso Espino | 2 | NA | NA |
| 30 | Andrew Garcia | 1 | NA | NA |
| 30 | Christian Marrero | 1 | NA | NA |
| 30 | Brandon Short | 1 | NA | NA |
| 30 | Michael Blanke | 1 | NA | NA |
| 34 | Justin Greene | 0 | NA | NA |
Explanation of the table: I think the Rank and Player are pretty self explanatory, as are the points. LW is for Last Week, which will show where the player was ranked the previous week. The +/- will show how many points that player gained or lost in the last week of action.
Since there hasn't been a previous week, they all get Not Applicable this week.
If there's anything to take from the first set of rankings, it's that I'm very happy to see names like Brent Morel, Adam Dunn, and Gordon Beckham at the top. Same with Alex Rios in the top ten.
What's not so good is to see Paul Konerko has contributed as much as Andy Wilkins and Delwyn Young this spring. Trade him now while there's still time!
I'll be back with the Pitcher's Power Poll later this afternoon.
Can you elaborate on or post what the exact formula is? People with way too much time on their hands like myself would like to see it.
ReplyDeleteI might once I've finalized it for the regular season, but I assure you that it's not all that complicated. Once I got to Calculus my senior year of high school my brain essentially checked out when it came to math.
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